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ofurkan.coWP No. 26-01
Oldenburg --:--

Working Paper Series · No. 26-01 · This version: 22 October 2026

Messy Data, Causal Answers, and Software That Ships: Evidence from One Applied Economist

Abstract

I am an applied economist and data scientist, finishing an M.Sc. in Applied Economics and Data Science in Oldenburg, Germany. I build panels from satellite and administrative data, replicate published results on independently constructed pipelines, and turn the boring parts into tools that run on their own: an R package on CRAN, a retrieval-augmented assistant in production, a monthly data pipeline to Kaggle. Using 1206 GitHub contributions as data, I find that I ship consistently, with a statistically significant drop on weekends (§3). Policy implication: hire me.

JEL codes C23, C55, C87, O18, R11
Keywords causal inference, panel data, GIS, reproducibility, data engineering, RAG

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Cite this person
@misc{coban2026hire,
  author       = {\c{C}oban, Furkan},
  title        = {Messy Data, Causal Answers, and Software That Ships},
  howpublished = {\url{https://ofurkan.co}},
  year         = {2026},
  note         = {Working Paper No. 26-01. Open to work.}
}

* Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg. I thank R, Quarto and an unreasonably patient VPS for helpful comments. Correspondence: see the end of this page.

§1

Selected work

All 12 entries →
  1. [1]Paper2026Regional Favoritism, RebuiltA from-scratch replication of Hodler & Raschky (2014, QJE): do regions glow brighter at night while their native son holds power? Extended with a harmonised DMSP/VIIRS panel through 2023.R · GIS · Nighttime lights · Panel econometrics · QuartoFig. A.1
  2. [2]R package2026● liveinkaRAn R package on CRAN that turns the BBSR INKAR regional statistics API into tidy data frames and publication-ready maps of Germany.R · CRAN · sf · ggplot2 · REST APIFig. A.2
  3. [3]Web app2026● liveAEDS RAG AssistantA retrieval-augmented chat assistant that answers students' questions about a master's programme strictly from its official documents, with citations, a relevance gate, and staff review.Python · FastAPI · LangGraph · Chroma · BM25Fig. A.3
  4. [4]Paper2026Urban Land-Use EfficiencyWhy the official SDG 11.3.1 sprawl indicator is statistically unstable, what a log-based replacement recovers, and how per-capita designs can manufacture the drivers they claim to find. 193 countries, 1985 to 2020.R · Google Earth Engine · GHSL · Dynamic panel GMM · Two-way FEFig. A.4
  5. [6]Tool2026R Plot ProA VS Code extension that brings an RStudio-style plots pane to R and Julia: automatic capture, no focus-stealing windows.TypeScript · VS Code API · R · JuliaFig. A.6
  6. [7]Paper2026German Power Price ForecastingForecasting hourly day-ahead electricity prices in Germany (2020 to 2026) around the merit-order effect, from automated ETL to ARIMAX vs Ridge vs XGBoost.Python · XGBoost · statsmodels · scikit-learn · SMARD APIFig. A.7
  1. 2.1I regressed my own GitHub historyWhy the front page of this site has a regression table, what it says about how I work, and how a 130-line OLS routine was checked against R.1 Oct 2026
    2 min read
§3

Evidence from my own commit history

github/ofurkancoban ↗

Claims about productivity should come with data. Below is every public contribution I made on GitHub between Oct 2025 and Oct 2026, pulled from the GitHub API when this page was built, and treated the way I would treat any other dataset.

1206Contributions
215Active days of 369
11Longest streak (days)
44Public repositories
0255075100
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOct
Figure 1. Daily public contributions (bars) and their 7-day moving average (line), 19 Oct 2025 to 22 Oct 2026. Hover for daily values.
Figure 2. The same data as a calendar, one column per week. Stronger colour means more contributions. Note the two empty rows at the top and bottom.less more
Table 1. Summary statistics
NMeanSDMedianP90MaxShare 0
Daily contributions3693.278.4018860.42
Weekly contributions5322.7532.4110561530.17

Main resultRelative to a Monday, a weekend day sees 5.3 fewer contributions on average (column 1). The effect survives a linear trend, month fixed effects and a lagged dependent variable. I code on weekdays and rest on weekends, and now there are standard errors to prove it.

Table 2. What predicts a busy day? OLS estimates, dependent variable: daily contributions. The last column is yours: tick the controls and it is re-estimated in your browser.
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5) Your spec
Tuesday0.550.530.42-0.93
(2.59)(2.52)(2.47)(2.18)
Wednesday-2.02-2.06-2.06-3.59*
(2.09)(2.03)(1.93)(1.92)
Thursday-2.15-2.21-2.26-3.09
(2.08)(2.02)(1.94)(1.94)
Friday-1.26-1.27-1.26-2.09
(2.18)(2.12)(2.05)(2.05)
Saturday-5.34***-5.37***-5.26***-6.34***
(1.96)(1.93)(1.86)(1.88)
Sunday-5.25***-5.23***-5.17***-5.22***
(1.97)(1.94)(1.86)(1.87)
Trend (per 100 days)1.98***3.082.24
(0.34)(4.38)(4.33)
Contributions, t-10.26***
(0.10)
Constant5.47***1.851.892.49
(1.95)(1.73)(1.62)(1.58)
Month fixed effectsNoNoYesYes
Observations369369369368
R²0.0660.1290.1800.237
Your spec:

Monday is the omitted category. Heteroskedasticity-robust (HC1) standard errors in parentheses. * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. Estimated with a 130-line OLS routine written for this page, cross-checked against R's lm().

Python22
JavaScript15
R7
TypeScript5
Lua5
Jupyter4
C2
Astro1
Figure 3. Number of public repositories using each language. Markup languages excluded, since rendered Quarto output would otherwise win by a landslide.

Data: GitHub GraphQL API, retrieved 22 Oct 2026. Replication code: scripts/fetch-github.mjs.